Profercy’s Nitrogen Index utilizes key global nitrogen fertilizer prices to derive a value for nitrogen as a crop nutrient. The Index provides a useful and straightforward tool to gauge the overall health of the World market for nitrogen fertilizers.
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| Market Status: Firm | Week 51 – Urea values firm; outcome of latest Indian purchasing tender awaited
A combination of supply cutbacks (Iran) and stronger than anticipated Indian inquiry has put urea suppliers in the driving seat as year end approaches. With a handful of western markets, primarily the USA and Turkey, behind on imports ahead of peak demand emerging next year, many producers have been able to extend order books well into January. Granular urea values have registered further price gains with Egyptian producers achieving $390-393pt fob recently. In SE Asia, spot values are up $10-15pt while sales ex-Nigeria have been achieved in the mid-$340s pt fob. National Fertilizers Limited received bids on 19 December in the inquiry for shipments to 10 February. The stated target of 1.5m. tonnes appears to be a tall order in the current environment. As such, it remains to be seen how much will be offered at competitive prices, but also what volumes the agency will be keen to lock in. India’s latest foray into the market does present challenges for buyers in the USA and Australia, as well as Ethiopia – where a tender closes on 23 December. A strong purchase would quickly tighten up availability into February in the east forcing many to look elsewhere or defer. The urea market will be watching developments in India closely given the nature of such inquiries. Yet, producers cannot be faulted for maintaining an optimistic outlook as 2025 nears. With urea firm, the outlook for most other nitrogen fertilizers is also positive. Amsul values have been firming in the USA, while nitrate and UAN values in Europe have been stable to firm. The ammonia market, however, is showing signs of weakness in the east and west. Lower values have been realised in North African cfr markets this week. The Nitrogen Index concludes the year at 165.50, registering gains of over five points since the beginning of the month. For a detailed overview of the latest developments in global nitrogen markets, as well as the latest regional market analysis and price assessments, you can receive a free trial of the Profercy Nitrogen Service. |
The Index is updated each week. An overview of the methodology can be found here.