Profercy’s latest long term price forecast, The Urea Outlook to 2030, was published in October 2016. While the latest report looks to the future, this blog provides an overview of price developments since 1970, as well as the factors that have contributed to five year price decline across global nitrogen markets. Urea accounts for over…
DetailsProfercy’s World Nitrogen Index currently stands at 94.90pts and has tracked sideways through September. However, with modest gains for urea and ammonium nitrate prices evident in the past two weeks, the Index could soon move over the 95 point mark for the first time since June. Urea: Indian demand supports producers in the East Global…
DetailsEarlier this week PotashCorp and Agrium announced that they have agreed stock-only merger terms that will create the largest crop nutrient company in the world. As yet unnamed, the new company will have a potash capacity of 20m tonnes per year (all figures nameplate basis) by the time it starts combined operations in mid-2017. This…
DetailsMid-July saw Profercy’s Nitrogen Index at its lowest level since the 2009 start date. However, international urea prices gained towards the end of the month and the market was stable to firm throughout August. Black Sea prilled urea prices are currently $15-20pt above the low levels seen in July, while Egyptian granular urea has gained…
DetailsProfercy Nitrogen Forecast 25 May 2016: “The June-Q3 trade balance is in surplus by 18%. While the more balanced situation for June should lead to some stability in the next few weeks, July appears heavily in surplus. Supply cutbacks and lower prices are needed to balance the market in Q3.” July has been a difficult…
DetailsFirst published 08.01 GMT, 24 June 2016, by Tom Jago. Today’s Brexit referendum victory has had big knock-on forex impacts overnight for key players in the global phosphates market. It should also free the UK of the EU’s selective import duty structure on imports according to origin (more below). – India: Brexit has hit Indian…
DetailsAfter a difficult January for nitrogen producers, global urea markets are currently on a firmer footing. Significantly, urea values in the US Gulf ran-up quickly in the last 10 days, moving up $20-30ps ton to over $245ps ton for March barges. A number of factors have supported the run-up, including the fact that the US…
DetailsNegative start to 2016; nitrogen prices under pressure Plentiful global supply and low energy environment undermines potential for a sustained run-up in prices It has been clear for some time that 2016 would be a difficult year for urea markets. Q1 has traditionally provided the best opportunities for producers to manage a run-up in global prices. However,…
Details2015 has played out as expected for urea prices. The market has been characterised by over-supply and depressed demand. Of the major urea markets, only India and Mexico have seen a sizeable increase in volumes of imported urea (basis latest data). Imports have lagged 2014 volumes in other major markets, and in the case of…
DetailsThe below entry draws heavily on Profercy’s latest Nitrogen Market Forecast. To obtain a copy, you can register for a free trial of Profercy’s Nitrogen Service here. It has been another challenging year for urea. As evidenced by the graph below, average nitrogen values prices have fallen for three years. Indeed, the Nitrogen Index, heavily…
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