Profercy World Nitrogen Index

Week 42 – Firm European gas values and ongoing supply disruption bolster urea supplier confidence despite thin liquidity 

Global urea prices have largely been stable to firm, with the exception of the US Nola market, as rising European gas prices and continued Middle Eastern supply disruption have left suppliers confident despite a slowdown in activity.

North African business has been lighter this week after some 100,000t of granular materia was placed at the producer level the week prior, with spot demand limited and European markets lagging replacement costs. Still, Egyptian prices increased $8pt from last week’s high.

Quotes in Western Europe markets are up as much as $40-50pt on the back of the higher North African fob values, though vessel business has been light, while Eastern European prices have advanced some $15pt on average.

Brazilian demand remains subdued, with weather concerns and credit constraints keeping importers on the sidelines. Offers have continued to rise, but buyers have been slow to follow despite imports remaining behind requirements.

US Nola values have softened, with November and December business falling by around $30ps ton amid limited trading activity and with continued vessel offers from African, Omani and Russian suppliers.

In the east, trading has been relatively quiet, although Australian demand has provided some support for Southeast Asian granular material. Chinese granular suppliers are largely committed for November, while prilled producers are positioning for an anticipated fresh Indian tender. The previous Indian inquiry secured just 410,000t against a target of 1.7m. tonnes.

Vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz have improved marginally, with cargoes emerging for Brazil, Thailand and India. However, flows remain well below pre-war levels.

The Profercy Nitrogen Index added a further 5.25 points to 224.96.