Profercy World Nitrogen Index

Week 20 – Nitrogen Index  hits 10-week low as suppliers accept lower prices to place product

The Profercy World Nitrogen Index fell by 19.35 points to a 10-week low of 308.15. Still, the index is some 87.44 points above pre-conflict level.  

Urea prices have dropped considerably in recent weeks, with some major fob benchmarks marking declines of around a third since the 15 April Indian Potash Limited (IPL) tender.

In the absence of India, no other major cfr market has stepped up given that Latin American demand has yet to build and the US and Europe are entering the offseason for imports. Affordability challenges have also been front of mind, despite the ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Suppliers with any length for May into June have had to accept even lower prices to place product. 

Small volume business has been concluded in SE Asia around $700pt fob, with Omani product directed to Brazil at returns some $100pt fob below that. Offers for Nigerian granular product in the mid-$600s pt fob have struggled to find bid interest. 

Of note, recent consistent price declines have managed to spark modest buying interest with Omani granular urea placed in Brazil and demand also evident in Africa. 

Many believe another Indian import inquiry could come soon and usher in a new round of business and competition for product. However, prices are unlikely to hit anywhere close to the April highs given that Chinese participation is a possibility from the middle of the year.