Profercy World Nitrogen Index

Week 14 (9 April 2026): Nitrogen Index hits new multi-year high as fresh Indian import inquiry emerges

The Profercy World Nitrogen Index has hit 352.95, its new highest level since May 2022 and a rise of 4.23 points from last week.

The rate of increase was at its slowest since before conflict in the Middle East began. While activity has been thin as the market follows international headlines, the return of India with a fresh import tender at a time of heavily constrained supply has kept prices firm.

Indian Potash Limited (IPL) will close a purchasing tender on 15 April seeking a sizeable 2.5m. tonnes of urea for shipment by 14 June. Such a large purchase is unlikely, particularly considering the extent of supply curtailments in the east.

While the ceasefire agreement between the USA and Iran over 7-8 April raised the possibility of a reopening of the Strait that could ease the supply crunch, vessel movement remains effectively blocked as terms of the fragile ceasefire are unclear.

As has been the case since 28 February, supply from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE is essentially frozen out of the market while a number of nitrogen facilities have been directly impacted by the conflict.

Indeed, the supply situation is even tighter as curtailments in Iran, the impact of recent drone strikes on Russian urea production, and technical issues affecting SE Asian output have added to existing supply woes.

Producers have largely held back on extending sales ahead of next week’s Indian inquiry, with most traders also content to sit on existing positions for now. Some small volumes of granular urea were placed ex Egypt in an $830-842pt fob range for April shipment, while Algerian product was placed in the $850s pt fob for May loading.

After a strong round of purchasing in Australia, Europe, Canada and the USA in March, buyers have since been reluctant to compete.

In the USA, news of the India’s return pushed Nola values up to a four-year high of $734ps ton fob earlier in the week. Less than a day later prices fell as low as $650-675ps ton fob following the ceasefire agreement. However, the lower levels were isolated business as the market recovered to either side of $700ps ton on 9 April.

All eyes are now on India with the outcome of next week’s tender set to dictate the global supply-demand balance, unless vessel begins to flow more freely through the Strait of Hormuz.